How Donald Trump Secured a Major Step in the Middle East But Faces Challenges With Putin Concerning Ukraine
Accounts of an impending US-Russia leadership meeting have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Just days after President Trump said he intended to confer with Russian President Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.
A preliminary meeting by the two nations' top diplomats has been cancelled, too.
"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," President Trump informed the press at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a waste of time, so I'll see what transpires."
- Donald Trump says he did not want a 'unproductive session' after plan for Putin talks postponed
- Letdown in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky leaves White House without results
The on-again, off-again meeting is another development in the president's attempts to broker an conclusion to war in Ukraine – a subject of renewed focus for the American leader after he arranged a ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal in Gaza.
While making remarks in the North African country recently to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, the president turned to Steve Witkoff, with a new request.
"We have to get Russia done," he said.
However, the circumstances that aligned to make a Middle East success possible for the negotiation team may be difficult to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for almost several years.
Reduced Influence
Per the lead negotiator, the crucial element to achieving a agreement was Israel's decision to attack Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a action that angered America's Arab allies but gave Trump leverage to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.
The US president gained from a long record of supporting the Israeli state dating back to his first term, including his choice to relocate the US embassy to Jerusalem, to alter America's position on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, more recently, his backing for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.
The American leader, actually, is better regarded among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a situation that gave him unique influence over the Israeli leader.
Combine Trump's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the area, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to force an deal.
In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, the president has much less influence. In recent months, he has vacillated between efforts to strong-arm Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.
The US leader has threatened to enact additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could harm the world's financial stability and further escalate the conflict.
At the same time, the US leader has criticized openly Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off information exchange with the country and pausing weapon deliveries to the country - only to then back off in the wake of concerned European allies who warn a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the entire region.
Trump often boasts about his ability to meet and hammer out deals, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to move the war any closer to a peaceful end.
The Russian president may in fact be exploiting Trump's desire for a settlement – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a method of influencing him.
During the summer, Russia's leader consented to a summit in Alaska at the time when it seemed probable that the president would sign off on legislative penalties backed by GOP senators. That bill was subsequently put on hold.
Recently, as news emerged that the White House was seriously contemplating sending long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the president of Russia called the US president who then promoted the possible meeting in Hungary.
The next day, Trump hosted Ukraine's leader at the White House, but departed without agreements after a allegedly tense meeting.
The US leader insisted that he was not being played by Putin.
"You know, I've been played all my life by the best of them, and I came out really well," he remarked.
However the president of Ukraine later made note of the timeline of developments.
"As soon as the matter of advanced weaponry became a little further away for Ukraine – for our nation – Russia almost automatically became less interested in diplomacy," he said.
So, in a short period, the president has bounced from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Putin and confidentially urging Zelensky to cede all of Donbas – including land Russia has been failed to capture.
He has ultimately decided on calling for a truce along present frontlines – a proposal the Russian government has rejected.
During his election campaign last year, the candidate promised that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has since abandoned that pledge, admitting that concluding the war is turning out harder than he anticipated.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his authority – and the challenge of finding a framework for peace when neither side desires, or can afford to, give up the fight.